Mexico has been going through a period of demographic transition over the last few years. This has led to a change in the sizes of the various age groups in the entire population. This has greatly been influenced by the declining levels of the fertility rates on the side of the female part of the population, mostly due to the introduction of new methods of family planning (Attane, 2005).
For the current year, 2011, the total fertility rates are 2.3 percent. This may seem to be a good thing but when compared to the projected death rates, which are expected to be five hundred and fifty-three thousand, we get to see just how bad the population situation in Mexico is currently. Estimates done by the United States Bureau show that the population will go on declining as the years go by, due to the expected low levels of fertility rates.
For the year 2011, the population pyramid is seen to be jagged, as the number of people is shown to go on increasing, as the population gets younger. This shows that the birth rates exceed the death rates, as the top part of the pyramid, which shows the number of people over the age of sixty-five, shows a very minimal number of people. The bottom part, which shows those aged between zero and thirty years, has the most number of people who constitute the population of Mexico (U.S Census Bureau, 2003).
This is different from the pyramid showing the estimations made for the year 2050. The pyramid is not a pyramid per se, as it does not show a slope, which is how a pyramid should look like. This is because it shows that the number of people between the ages of thirty to seventy is expected to be quite high by then. More people over the ages of sixty-five and fewer births are expected to be observed come the year 2050.
The age group which is the major component of the population now in Mexico, are those aged between zero and twenty years because there are higher death rates of the population aged sixty-five and over. This will change by the year 2050 because the fertility rates will have lowered drastically. The birth rates will be lower and due to other favorable factors, the population of people over the age of sixty-five will have increased greatly, meaning that the population will mostly be made up of people between the ages of fifteen and seventy-five. This means that in 2011, the younger members of the population are dying at a very young age.
Both pyramids are shown to widen at the bottom, the difference being that in 2011, the most dominant age making up the population is aged between zero and thirty years, while the pyramid representing the year 2050, shows the dominant age in the population being between fifteen and seventy-five.
Factors affecting the differences in the pyramids
The factors responsible for the difference seen in the two pyramids are fertility, mortality, and migration. Lower deaths and heightened levels of life expectancy have both lowered greatly the fertility rates as the year’s progress. In the current year, 2011, the fertility rates are slightly high at 2.3 percent, but it is expected to drop to below an irreplaceable rate by the year 2050 (Sedano, F, 2008).
Improved sanitation and access to medical facilities is contributing factor in making it possible for more children to survive childhood. Life expectancy is also expected to rise from sixty to eighty years, by the year 2050, thus more old people will be expected to constitute a larger part of the population. More people are expected to have migrated from Mexico into neighboring countries by the year 2050. The reasons for the migration might be to search for work opportunities or to escape the population explosion that is expected to be experienced come 2050.
The pyramid for 2050
Zero population growth is when the number of births equals the number of deaths. While negative growth means that either a country has more deaths than births or an equal number of births and deaths, in a particular year. By the year 2050, the number of births is expected to be constant just as there will be fewer deaths. This means that there will be negative population growth. More people will be living to an old age of above seventy years, which will compensate for the lesser number of children being born by that year.
Stages of the Demographic Transition
The demographic transition is a step-by-step description of how the population changes with time, due to the different changes in demographics and social issues. This includes considering mostly births and deaths that have occurred in a particular country.
Stage one usually considers the number of people who die annually in a particular country. During this stage, the economies of countries change drastically and major economic developments are experienced. Medical facilities become more advanced and sanitation is on a high. Thus, deaths reported are very minimal (Caldwell, 2006).
Stage two is characterized by a rise in population levels due to high birth rates, which is accompanied by lower death rates.
In stage three, the population becomes more stable as the birth rates become lower. This is mostly due to lowered rates of fertility, as is the case with Mexico now.
In stage four the population is constant and more stable. Here, the population is made up of mature people in society. People live to the ages of above seventy years. Births are lesser and death rates of people between the ages of fifteen and seventy are even lesser. This is where Mexico is estimated to be, by the year 2050. This is because as explained earlier, by the year 2050, Mexico’s population is expected to be majorly made up of a population of mature age, those contributing to the development of the country, that is, those aged between fifteen and seventy years.
Attane, I. (2005). Chinese Population Challenges: Fewer Girls, More Old People. Population & Societies, (416), 1-4.
Caldwell, C. J. (2006). Demographic Transition Theory. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer.
Sedano, F. (2008). Economic Implications of Mexico’s Sudden Demographic Transition: Business Economics. 43(3), 40-54.
U.S. Census Bureau (2003). International Data Base. Web.